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Likely developments

  • Answering Questions -- What is today known as "a librarian." A librarian is not a person who "keeps the stacks." A librarian is someone who knows what information is available, where the information is, and can tell you what's important. [1] Librarians obviously won't be tending new collections of books in the future, but they will be answering questions on question boards, and paid to do it, on an open market.
  • Programmer -- Programmers is already on the way to becoming highly specialized- like doctors. Just as doctors have people who spend their entire lives working on nothing more than the foot,
  • Cyber-Security -- Cyber-security is likely to be a critical deal, and something that many people are paid to do. There is no lock that does not have a key, and software is famously buggy. Until we have have beyond-human level artificial intelligence, and even a short time after, humans are clever, and may attack one system or another.
  • Complex Labor -- If the work is simple, it's done by a computer or a robot.
  • Voluntary Labor -- It's conceivable that the basics of life (housing, food, transportation, limited energy, limited communication) will be very cheap. Look at your bills, and, just for fun, cut the cost of housing, transportation, communication, and car insurance, by half.
  • Competition Across Ages -- Younger and older demographics, previously unused by the labor pool, will be available. The work is basically intellectual, and there are plenty of intellects, both young and old. Youth have found ways to make money and even small businesses online. Older people are fit for longer, and several arguments have been made that they will be retiring likely. [2] [3] [4]

Unlikely developments

  • Technicians Everywhere. -- As user interface develops, as people become accustomed to it, as software improves, we won't need as many intermediaries.
  • Repairmen Everywhere. -- A lot of people respond to "What will people do, when the robots come," with: "They'll fix the robots." It's quite likely that robots will fix robots; There is nothing conceptually preventing them from performing the analysis and labor.

Scenarios for the Firm

  • Smaller Firms -- Ronald Coase argued that as transaction cost decreases, the size of the firm decreases. When Boeing can communicate the entire specification for a wing, (for example,) it has the option of delegating out the wing's production on the market. Someone may figure out how to produce that wing for cheaper than Boeing itself. That said, Google remains large. Why? And w:Peter Drucker

See also

Links

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This is a factual article as opposed to fiction or scenario. It describes the current state of the field and explains expected future developments without speculation or fantasy.

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