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--James Stuart 12:29, 11 March 2007 (UTC)WITHIN A GENERATION
With limited information, as we attempt to create a better world, what we at times do create is a world of decreasing understanding. A world of decreasing stability. The pace of change is increasing. What will the world be like in 10 years? What will the world be like in 20 years?
The world is heating up ... in more ways than one. If you had the information to change the path of the future, would you change it? The world is facing a series of significant challenges that will affect every person.
If you walk on a busy street with your eyes closed, what do you think will happen? If you attempt to cross a busy road with your eyes closed, what do you think will happen? Through investigation and analysis it is possible to walk with open eyes on a very busy street - and allow organisations to determine what is a few steps ahead and so avoid those nasty accidents, and so gain advantage and realise opportunity.
Too many organisations are blind to the future or live in denial of the future. Yet the future will happen and it will impact on everyone. We live in a surprise society. What surprises await you?
Within a generation what will happen?
From close investsigation and analysis of past behaviours and present trends, it is possible to state
- growth in the global economy
- the sustainability of the Asian giants
- a massive wave of migration from the developing to the developed world
- the rise of the "supercity"
- tensions and competition within and by the supercities
- the major impact of global warming
- the decrease in the use of oil and gas
- the rise in the use of sustainable energy sources
- the potential of a severe H5N1 pandemic
1. The global economy will increase - but unevenly. There will continue to be massive disparities in global wealth. The Asian giants such as China and India will have sustained the increased range and scope of their economies. China especially will emerge as an economic superpower. The economies of the developed world will be increasingly dependent on high level technology and specialised services, as well as innovation led products, services. The economies of the developing world will increase slower and with a greater positive impact on healthcare.
2. Population within the developing world will increase at a greater rate than in the developed world and will outstrip the rise in opportunity within the developing world.
3. Global warming will increase. Within a generation the first severe effects of global warming will be unavoidable. This will cause significant hardship throughout large areas of the world. And still many organisations / countries will promote the use of fossil fuels.
4. Primarily because of points 1 and 2, and complicated by point 3, there will be a massive new wave of migration from the developed world to the developing world. This will be both legal and illegal migration.
5. This massive wave of migration will be centred around cities and will effectively swamp many cities. The developed cities will expand and cause a noticeable pressure on local resources - as well as tension between different communities as resources are preferentially centred on the newcomers. Crime will increase as will the resources available to the different security services.
6. This wave of migration will cause further instability in the developing world due to the scale of the brain / resource drain. This will make sustainability within the developing world difficult and will add to the barriers facing equal growth. It will further add to the pressures on migration.
7. There will also be an increase in tension between specific national bodies - especially those who use religion and the politics of hate to cling on to power and distract their populations from the severe mismanagement of economies. Within those countries will develop even more harsh regimes.
8. There will be a growth in terrorist activities, funded and trained by those who thrive on the politics of hate, further increasing the level of global tension. The failure of some developed countries to maintain a national focus and identity and pay too much attention to political correctness will cause a stream of volunteers to the causes of violent extremism from within the developed world.
9. There will be a specific attack on a major global financial centre or symbolic target. This will happen prior to 2010 and will be centred on a definite area. It will be delivered by one of a number of means. There will be a significant level of reprisals against communities and against those states openly accused of supporting global terrorism.
10. This tension will give rise to an energy crisis orchestrated by a number of oil and gas producing states in an attempt to weaken or severely damage the west. This will backfire on such states. It will also backfire on such commercial entities who for years held back the progress of alternative energies in favour of their profits.
11. Due to the energy crisis and the high level of technology within the developed world, there will be a massive increase in the use of sustainable power and sources of energy alterative to oil.
12. Fossil fuels will still be in use - but in declining use, and will bring further demise to those states who orchestrated the energy crisis.
13. The levels of atmospheric pollutants from the combustion of fossil fuels will peak - and then start to decline but not enough to avoid some of the more serious consequences.
14. Following the energy crisis, the global economy will increase - but under severe risk due to the threat of pandemic.
It would be wrong to look at the above points and perceive the world in terms of dangers. The above main points contain a series minor points that include both dangers and opportunities. It will become increasingly important to be made aware of the dangers in order to avoid them. Likewise, those organisations who will be successful in the future will be those who are capable of turning inaction and action into advantage.
What will this mean for the individual?
A greater opportunity for anyone who wants to develop.