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Future

LionKimbro

139 Edits since joining this wiki
March 10, 2005

I'm keeping a running log of research here.

Feel free to use anything here for any purpose; All text I write on this page I place into the public domain; And if that's not legal, then I give an unlimited license to use it for any purpose in any way to all people.

I collect links and text here until it's good enough for a page on this wiki. If you want to pull the data and put it somewhere else on the wiki, by all means, please do it!


Open Source futures studies

Automated Highway System, Automated Vehicles

E-Paper, 2007?

The companies say it's as good as a monitor, but that we'll be using it on packaging stuff. If it were truely going to be as good as a monitor, but cheaper... ...wouldn't we use it as a monitor?

Bandwidth?

I'm looking for near-term USA bandwidth projections; Say: 2005-2015.

You'd think something like this would be all over the place, but I'm not seeing it. I have seen requests, though:

  • 100 MbPS by 2010 - which, ... is about 100x what I have at home, and 200x what most "broadband" users have right now.

But I see nothing in terms of projections. update: Here's one on cell phone bandwidths; 400-700 Kbps in 2006 cell phones.

The best I have seen so far are the 4G capabilities, but I don't know how usable that will be for most people.

Other interesting things:

Update 2006-08-21: I've just learned that the CTIA is the group we want to pay attention to, to track Wireless activity. Check out the sessions at this CTIA Wireless 2006 gathering, see who's attending, and see what they're talking about. I think this is an intensely valuable source, for near-term wireless projection.

I learned that bandwidth projections are based on two things:

  • government spectrum allocations; and appresently there is a round of auctioning at play right now (2006-08-21),
  • technologies ability to make better use of the spectrum

Those are the two things to pay attention to, if you're looking at consumer technology bandwidth.


Accelerometers for positioning.

Tips from conference:

  • cell phone accelerometers will have meter accuracy by hourly GPS updates + accelerometer (heard from 2 people, @ wikisym)

Artificial Cellular Life

"The Los Alamos Bug."

I saw it reported on Slashdot.

You make an artificial self-reproducing cell that obeys custom written programming.

We'll see how it goes.


Micro-Logistics

Hoards of people drive and/or bus into and out of the city, every day.

Is it reasonable to anticipate a "micro-logistics" scenario, where this movement is capitalized on?

  • city-area transfers may be faster, cheaper, but less reliable
  • integrate with web(s) of trust
  • integrate with existing city courier networks (bike courier)
  • requires shared protocols for saying who will be moving from where, to where, when, billing, damage reporting, ...
  • benefits from automated calendar adjustments (environment that can recognize: "Oh, my user is sick, and not going go to work.")
  • benefits from live transport data

Compare/contrast with Manna-like work environments, where employees micro-managed by computer instruction.

See Seattle Fleetfoot, for an example. Are these services computer driven? $5.00 for downtown-downtown same-day transport, $20 from Lynnwood, $60 for an hour rush from Lynnwood. Logistical networks incorporating the local community may be able to pay out $1 to an employee going out to lunch for an hour, willing to pick up and drop off a package.

Also feeds in with the AHS, and "internet of things": UN wakes up to Internet of Things

see also: UFO's: ubiquitous findable objects


Speech-to-text, Translation, Post-Literate, Speech-to-visor


Libraries, Community Centers


Blogs, IM, Popular Communication

  • Pew research - 20% teens w/ online access using blogs, older = more blogging, 38% read; among adults 7% blog, 26% read. BBC

Displays

One for Virtual reality - Japan demonstrates next-gen TV broadcast -- superhigh resolution: 7680 x 4680 "Super Hi-Vision" -- "can convey the sensation of reality to viewers" (would be interested in seeing impartial accounts of subjective experience) -- more info

Interesting side-note from the Open House 2005 website: TVs that you can ask questions -- combining TV watching with interactive question & answer - also check out the technical exhibits


Organized Culture

I spent last weekend having a whirlwind of a time at the Seattle Mindcamp, a gathering of 150 local geeks of many diff sorts.

An organizer expressed some frustration; Wanted biotech people to be there as well, will focus more on that community next time.

Lots of development, sharing, networking going on.

Lion observed mesh networking, NOMAD vision system, robot, several other things. NOMAD can be purchased for ~4,000; Asked but no answer to future expectations - price, future cam integration, ...; Talked with an individual about building companies, communications software & hardware used & tested in Katrina, shared knowledge on visual language, Robert Horn, documentation. Surprised: Didn't see GPS/positioning stuff going on: a gap.

The next mindcamp will be 6 months. Perhaps a year.

These kinds of camps are growing much more common, and, I predict, will be a regular thing in the future. Talked with many people about space & financing. This is a big part of the "HiveMind" future I described on TaoRiver futures wiki, and "Organized Culture" in general. (see all: CommunityWiki:OrganizedCulture.) It's always techs who are spearpoint of use of these kinds of technologies; in the future, communities will be much more organized. It will look like this. Mindcamp serves as a basepoint for further organizing as well, such as Seattle GNOME and Linux communities. "Networking" is stated goal.


Simulated Brains


Abortion a total non-issue?

I'm personally of the mind that abortion will be a total non-issue at some point in the future.

At some point, we will likely (I think!) figure out how to turn on and off the ability to contribute to child-production. A man will be able to say: "my body doesn't produce sperm right now." A women will be able to somehow limit the release of eggs.

Child-bearing will require the true consent of two people to happen. If a man doesn't want to have a kid, he'll just turn off his child bearing capabilities. If a woman doesn't want to have a kid, she'll just turn off her child bearing capabilities.

Considerations, however:

  • what is the form of "turning off?" -- the ideal is a switch that you flip (metaphorically) -- but if it's too intrusive as a first technology, such as the consumption of pills, then it may be a long time before it gets to be much less obtrusive
  • what if we're not human by the time the technology is plausible? (uploads, brains in vats, ...)

My loopy estimate is 30 years, plausibly 15 years. I'm thinking: "You'd need an implanted bio-electronic regulatory system of some sort, at a minimum, to pull this off. That's some pretty wicked cybernetics there that is. Slap 15 years on that sucker." Not the most scientific thinking, but it's better than nothing, I think.

The end result of this is that everybody will be against abortion, at that point. The Alaskan eskimos used to kill (well, abandon) their very young, and killed their elderly, (frequently at the request of the elderly- I remember the quote, "A little higher, son," from an Eskimo advising his son to strike the rock a little higher, he wasn't quite getting the heart right away- dunno if that story I read in a book on Eskimos was true or not) for the good of the tribe. But nobody does that where they don't have to: suddenly it becomes improper. So I think it will go the same way with abortion. "Why the hell did you turn on your reproductive system, if you didn't want to have a kid?!" people will rightfully ask. "No, you can't abort it now!"


Transhumanist Blogs:

I had a much bigger list in a ffox buffer, but I've lost track of the buffer..! Included WTA, Future Hi, lost track of it...

Blog on future military technology:


Intelligence Gathering

But, also see Intelligence Community website, where (lost link) it rebukes claims that OSINT is becoming a staple. (Need to find link again.) Probably an internal controversy inaccessible to outsiders.

I know next to nothing about the intelligence community, and can't make anything more than make weak guesses into how it works. I only know INTINT - Internet Intelligence. (Because, I'm working specifically on building it.) Many Internet users make use of what would have been called IMINT. Hans recommends looking through declassified spy-plane specifications, and checking out camera resolutions, to sort out what kinds of resolution maps exist.

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