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United States presidential election, 2020 (Scenario: 84 Years Ahead)

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United States presidential election, 2020
United States Flag
2016November 3, 2020 2024

538 members of the Electoral College

270 electoral votes needed to win

Turnout 56.6% ▲ 3.0 pp
Warren 2024
Trump 2020-2
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Donald Trump

(Incumbent)

Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts New York
Running mate Sherrod Brown Mike Pence
Electoral vote 381 157

States carried

31 + DC + NE-02 20

Popular vote

71,759,953 60,100,098
Percentage 52.6% 44.1%

2020 electoral map
Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states/districts won by Warren/Brown. Red denotes those won by Trump/Pence. Numbers indicate electoral votes allotted to the winner of each state. The 2020 election would be the last election where the electoral college used data from the 2010 census.

-

The United States presidential election of 2020 was the 59th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Democratic nominee Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and running mate Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio defeated incumbent President Donald J. Trump of New York and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana. Elizabeth Warren, upon her inauguration, became the first woman ever to be elected president of the United States and, at 71, also the oldest person.

The election is seen by many historians as a repudiation of Donald J. Trump and his administration, specifically due to the ongoing recession, multiple scandals, and alarming potential for conflict with Russia (a developing foreign policy debate that dominated the election). Elizabeth Warren achieved the Democratic Party's presidential nomination on May 13, 2020, after defeating Cory Booker in a somewhat competitive race. Donald J. Trump, the incumbent President, drew large controversy over his intention to run for reelection, making contradictory statements about his plans. He would later announce his reelection campaign and win his party's nomination with ease despite minor controversial candidates campaigning to defeat the President.

Elizabeth Warren, along with her running mate Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, went on to win the election in a near-landslide, achieving the highest number of electoral votes for one candidate in 32 years, and the largest winning margin (8.55%) since Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1984. Warren's total vote amount of 71.8 million votes is the highest amount ever won by a presidential candidate. The Democratic Party won 10 states it had lost in 2016, plus Nebraska and Maine's second districts. Many political analysts theorize that the Russian invasion of East Ukraine only 3 weeks before the election caused it to swing heavily in the favor of Warren, inducing Alaska, a state where Warren campaigned in light of the news from East Ukraine, to be handily won by a Democrat for the first time since 1964. Multiple other traditionally Republican states flipped to Democrats in the 2020 election, including South Carolina (the first time since 1976), Georgia (the first time since 1992), and Arizona (the first time since 1996). Other Republican states like Texas, Utah, and Missouri were only narrowly won by Trump with less than a 5 point margin.

The election of 2020 was notable for both major candidates running on a populist campaign; Elizabeth Warren's main campaign message being to provide better economic potential for Americans, "getting Wall Street out of Washington", and the tearing down of elitism in politics; and President Trump's message being one of refusal to the 'media elite' and the continuation of his outsider administration's challenging of the political status quo. Elizabeth Warren would, throughout the campaign, point to Donald Trump's failure in upholding his 2016 campaign's anti-Wall Street stance, citing his inclusion of lobbyists and those close to Wall Street in his cabinet, while President Trump focused his attacks on Elizabeth Warren's claimed racial heritage, disconnect with rural America, and representation of the 'political establishment' through her senatorship. His nickname for Warren, 'Pocahontas', along with 'The Indian' and 'Red Warren' (referring to her claims of Native American heritage in 2012) would prove controversial and questionable for Donald Trump's campaign. Warren would go on to win 91% of the Native American vote, the highest achieved by any candidate in American history.

Background

Donald Trump's administration was among the most controversial and unorthodox in American history. After defeating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by campaigning on a message of populism, change, and a takedown of the Washington establishment, many saw his administration as a failure to deliver on his radical policy proposals, both those that fit with conservatives and those that didn't. The Trump Administration, for example, only altered Obamacare instead of repealing as he had promised during his campaign, while key campaign issues such as "building the wall" and "a complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States" were mentioned rarely throughout his first term.

Donald Trump's average approval rating, 28%, was a record low in terms of presidential history. Over his administration, multiple scandals and controversies such as the Apprentice Tapes, 'Nuke-gate', and his assassination attempt in late 2019 would plague his presidency. He would leave office in January 2020, a time which the prospect of war with Russia was looming and recession had set in, with only a 9% approval rating; the lowest in history. His refusal to concede the election to President-elect Warren and various inflammatory Tweets would be widely controversial.

In the 2016 Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont, saw large enthusiasm over his populist message, similar to that seen surrounding then presidential candidate Donald Trump and his populist message from the right. Many saw the rise of Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Democratic Primaries as part of a movement towards populism in both parties, as well as the radicalization of Democrats and Republicans alike that had been occurring over the last decade.

Primaries

Democratic Party Ticket, 2020
U.S. Democratic Party logo (transparent).svg
Elizabeth Warren Sherrod Brown
for President for Vice President
Warren 2024
Brown 2020
U.S Senator from Massachusetts

(2012-2020)

U.S Senator from Ohio

(2007-2020)

Democratic Party Primaries

Nine major candidates in total publicly sought the Democratic Party's nomination; the large number being a reaction to the small number of candidates in 2016 and the low approval rating of the Republican incumbent President Trump. Those candidates were, before December 14, 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Julian Castro, Tim Kaine, Amy Klobuchar, and Martin O'Malley.

Political analysts likened the 2020 Democratic primaries to the 2016 Democratic primaries, yet far more emphasized in a unilateral message of populism and antiestablishmentism. Elizabeth Warren, within the first debates, became the face of populism in the Democratic party, surging to a lead in national polls that would last for much of her primary campaign. She would go on to be the second woman in history to win the Iowa Caucus on February 1, 2020, with Booker coming in a close second and Blasio in a distant third. In the New Hampshire Primary, Elizabeth Warren won by over 30 points, one of the largest victories in the state's Primary history. Although Cory Booker won modest victories in the south due to his large advantage over African American Democrats, Elizabeth Warren's large victories in the midwest would propel her to the nomination making her the second women ever to be nominated by a major political party in American history (Hillary Clinton being the first in the 2016 election) on May 13, 2020, achieving the majority of the delegates and garnering 17.1 million votes, the third most ever accumulated by a candidate in a primary campaign behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic Primaries. Elizabeth Warren's campaign of populist policies, anti-corruption, and political upheaval which won her the nomination was a preview to her general election strategy; countering President Trump and his own right-wing populism with left-wing populism. The Warren Campaign would announce Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as Warren's running mate on July 21, 2020, just before the Democratic National Convention in Columbus, Ohio.

Republican Party Ticket, 2020
Republican Disc
Donald Trump Mike Pence
for President for Vice President
Trump 2020-2
Pence 2020
45th President of the United States

(2017-2021)

48th Vice President of the United States

(2017-2021)

Republican Party Primaries

The Republican Party Primaries of 2020 have been considered uniquely tumultuous, having the incumbent President Donald J. Trump be challenged by Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham as well as the intense speculation over whether or not President Trump would run for reelection. Both Cruz and Graham stated their motivation behind challenging the incumbent Trump was for the "betterment of the Republican Party". Despite Cruz winning multiple states, the majority of the Republicans saw the challenging of the incumbent against the interests of the party. 

President Trump would capture the majority of delegates needed to be the presumptive nominee on April 15, 2020. By that time, the Trump Campaign had already pivoted to the general election, attacking Democratic primary candidates Warren, Booker, and Brown specifically. 

Debates

Under Construction

Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Under Construction

Results

Under Construction

Reaction

Madam President

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