Talk:Scenario: Emergence of China
From Future
China's population will decline from a peak of around 1.35 billion to around 700 million by 2089. This is not taking into account major war or catastrophe, which are both likely to occur.
China's extra male population will have three choices--importing brides (highly likely), going expatriate to marry overseas (also likely, but less available for those less financially able), and becoming "ladyboys" or transgender (an increasingly viable and desired option as well). Of course, this extra population of males may also engage in wars of conquest.
China has the opportunity to reintegrate Taiwan. However, it must put aside the saber-rattling and also acknowledge that Taiwan will always have its own independent governing body. The Chinese need to think of this in the following manner--China will be like Germany, while Taiwan will be like Austria. If China takes Taiwan by force, it will suffer greatly in the court of world opinion.
China must also decide if it would prefer to deal peacefully with India (1.25 billion now and likely to rise to 1.85 billion by 2089) and the United States (325 million now and likely to rise to 500 million or more by 2089). If China persists in aiding and arming countries like Pakistan, Iran, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Venezuela, Cuba and similarly vile countries, it is likely to seriously lose favor with the US and India, and with the West as well.
China has serious ecological issues before it. It is wasting precious resources to build up a military it does not need. There are no countries that threaten China. With only 4% of the world's resources but 20% of the world's resources, China is currently scouring the planet to strip it of ever-fewer resources. China is not likely to secure all the resources that it wants to gobble up and diverting such high amounts for military uses only exacerbates China's problems.
China could, however, build up its credibility on the world stage if it took some bold, unusual steps. For example, if China squelched North Korea. If China quit supporting the brutal government of Sudan. If China quit vetoing more strenuous actions against Iran. These moves would give China the international foreign relations standing that would give it more respect and accord. However, its continuing failure to make difficult choices and engage the world like a responsible power make it less likely to gain foreign relations respect.
China has a very real problem with food and water security, and it is likely that if no foreign power acts militarily against China, it may seek such confrontation on its own desire in an attempt to gain more food and water. This will not only fail, but seriously backfire. However, China cannot grow or import enough food and water for its people and it is likely that a civil war will ensue during the next 20 years.
