Scenario: United Nations

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The United Nations will be considered a forerunner to a worldwide federal government that will emerge sometime either during the late 21st century or the early 22nd century.

The Disintegration of the Multinational States

In the next few decades, there will be more national splits as disillusioned minority ethic groups clamor for independence from their parent countries.

Justification: This pattern has already been seen in many disparate situations. The decolonization efforts after World War Two, and the splintering of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics all demonstrate this trend; it is likely to continue.
Justification: Various ethnic groups in Asiatic Russia are already clamoring for independence, as are the Basques and Kurds, to name a few.

With this disintegration, some of the current world powers will decline, and the number of members in the United Nations will rise once again. Hence, we will see a shift in power toward the allies of those smaller states.

Justification: Each sovereign nation can send its delegate to the United Nations and has one vote. This is as much as the United States or Russia or France can get (though the permanent members of the Security Council have veto power).
Justification: As the number of minor nations continues to rise, other nations will begin to court them, in the hopes of obtaining their support in the form of United Nations votes on various issues. This in turn will give more power to these minor states.

The Rise of the United Nations

See main article: United States.

Not only the United States, but also other prominent nations, will begin to lose leverage. This is because the United Nations will fill with more participants (in other words, newly created states) all clamoring for a "fair share" of the voting and decision-making power.

Justification: Each nation wants as much diplomatic/political leverage as it can get, and therefore will clamor to receive as much power as it can get under the rules set forth in the United Nations constitution.
Justification: As the United States withdraws from foreign politics, so will it begin to lose leverage among the nations of the world (of course, the Central Intelligence Agency will still be of much impact in smaller states).

Meanwhile, the United Nations will gain more power in its own right, instead of being powerful only through the United States, resulting from the withdrawal of the United States from active global activity.

Justification: Up to now, the United Nations has been living solely through the military power of the United States, and therefore the citizens of the United States have come to see the United Nations benignly (due to their influence in the United Nations).
Justification: This benign view will make United States citizens want to see the United States continue in its support and participation in the United Nations, even after the United States is no longer in firm control of that entity.
Justification: With the rise of other world powers (as listed before) that will continue their firm support of the United Nations, this body will become independent of the military provided by the United States.

Therefore, the United States will be diplomatically on a lower level than the United Nations, and yet the United States administration cannot complain about this reversal of roles.

Justification: The citizens of the United States all believe in the ideals of liberty, voting, etc. So does the constitution of the United Nations. Therefore, it is only common sense that to the average United States citizen, support of the two go hand-in-hand.
Justification: The citizens of the United States will not turn against the United Nations unless there is a direct conflict of interests on the whole people, and the United Nations will not adopt policies that will bring about such conflict of interests because the policy makers in the United Nations are not that stupid, having the intelligence to get to their positions.
  The United States will be in some real global issues if they continue to neglect the world that it was supposed to help.

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