Scenario: Rise of ISIS

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ISIS, ISIL, or Islamic State is a small self proclaimed Islamic caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria, claiming it has authority over all Islamic peoples across the globe and calling them to pledge their allegiance to the caliphate. In present day it has direct authority and occupation over a small amount of land with about 10 million people and is still attempting to expand throughout the middle east. It is viewed generally in a negative light across the globe and is responsible for the deaths of many innocent people and the destruction of many historic and cultural sites across Iraq and Syria. It has operatives in many countries across the world and an army of nearly 100,000 direct fighters, and claims to be recruiting aroud 7,000 new fighters from across the world each month, slightly faster than the large coalition of countries fighting the group is able to kill them off. Nearly every major terrorist group has declared allegiance to ISIS, such as the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Boko Haram. Islamic State is responsible for public mass executions using medieval methods such as beheading and burning, as well as terror attacks in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.

Although a coalition of about 60 countries claim to be fighting the Islamic State, little to no progress has been made as of September 2015 in defeating it, although its expansion has slowed somewhat. Many world leaders have denounced ISIS, but also write it off as a credible threat. It has been compared to Nazi Germany, called anti-Islamic, among others, but has not ceased to find funding or recruits across the world, as well as establish a presence in countries both neighboring it and abroad, such as France, the UK, the United States, Canada, and Japan among others. As previously stated, little to nothing is being done to stop something comparable to the Nazis, and which is growing at an alarming rate. This scenario/timeline explores what could possibly come in the future if ISIS remains unchecked, taking into account the governments and affairs of major nations across the globe.

NOTE: I do not believe I am accurately predicting what will happen if ISIS continues to expand, nor am I certain that it will even continue to expand, this is merely what I think is a possible outcome of a relatively unchallenged Islamic State. The timeline will regularly change based on real world events related to ISIS.

Recent Real Affairs

  • 14 April 2015: ISIS reportedly established a camp in Mexico a few miles from the border of Texas.
  • 6 May 2015: ISIS declared that it has operatives in 15 U.S. states and that terrorism will come to the United States.
  • 13 May 2015: ISIS claimed responsibility of the mass murder of 43 people in Karachi, Pakistan.
  • 17 May 2015: ISIS captured the city of Ramadi, killing 500 people and detonating 6 car bombs.
  • 28 May 2015: ISIS captures a major Libyan airport.
  • 10 June 2015: Barack Obama sent 450 U.S. advisors to help Iraqi forces defeat ISIS.
  • 2 July 2015: ISIS launched rockets into Israel.
  • 3 July 2015: ISIS released a video of the executions of 23 Syrians.
  • 17 July 2015: An ISIS attack killed 130 and injures 130 more.
  • 20 July 2015: An ISIS suicide bomber killed 32 and injures 104 in Turkey.
  • 2 August 2015: Russia reportedly killed several ISIS fighters in the Caucasus region.
  • 5 August 2015: The USA launched its first official attacks on ISIS from a Turkish base,
  • 21 August 2015: ISIS destroyed a historic monastery in Syria.
  • 23 August 2015: ISIS destroyed a 2,000 year old temple in Palmyra, Syria.


Expansion Resumes


  • 11 September: A small bombing takes place in Times Square, injuring 6.
  • 3 October: After nearly a month of silence, ISIS attacks Baghdad and Homs with nerve gas of unknown origin, and Barack Obama states that their punishment for these actions will be severe.
  • 5 October: ISIS captures Homs; nearly 200 ISIS operatives are killed in a massive bombing run by the USA.
  • 8 October: ISIS claims that it has taken control of Baghdad and Ramadi. A terrorist plot in Italy to bomb the city of Naples is uncovered and stopped.
  • 16 October: ISIS reportedly captures Hewler and Dihok from the Kurds in Iraq.
  • 19 October: A small amount of ISIS operatives in northern Libya begin terrorizing cities adjacent to their territories when 5 car bombs go off. al-Qaeda seizes control of key oil fields in central Yemen, generating revenue for both al-Qaeda and ISIS.
  • 28 October: Barack Obama sends a small group of forces to oversee the Iraqi war effort with explicit orders to not engage ISIS.
  • 6 November: Using nerve gas, ISIS takes control of Kirkuk and begins raiding and bombing Silemani.
  • 12 November: ISIS reaches Aleppo; 100+ members are killed in airstrikes. A man affiliated with ISIS murders two men in Texas.
  • 17 November: Bin Jawad falls into the hands of ISIS in Libya, along with Ghurah and Tall Tamer in Syria.
  • 22 November: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announces that ISIS's membership has reached 110,000.
  • 24: Nerve gas is used to take Suluk from the Kurds and mass executions begin in Baghdad, Homs, and Aleppo (predominantly Christian).
  • 29 November: ISIS announces it has captured Amuda and Qamishli, although the validity of these claims is called into question.
  • 3 December: The Iraqi army flees southeast all the way to Kut, leaving ISIS to take control of several undefended cities.
  • 7 December: Najaf is captured along with Tartus and Hama. ISIS begins forcing those it captures to fight for their cause. Obama states that bombings will be significantly increased.
  • 9 December: al-Baghdadi is injured in an airstrike.
  • ISIS 2016 map

    Location of ISIS at the end of 2015

    22 December: ISIS captures Afrin after launching an abnormally large amount of rockets into the city.
  • 26 December: The Kurds are total deprived of territory in Syria and are executed en masse.
  • 31 December: Rockets are launched at Egyptian ships from the Sinai Peninsula.


  • 16 January: Thousands are killed in a massive nerve gas attack on Damascus. In response, the UK and US appeal to the UN for a declaration of war on ISIS, and their request is denied. People across the globe still do not want war with ISIS, while they do realize that they are committing atrocities.
  • 17 January: Saudi Arabia declares war on ISIS in light of the recent slaughter in Damascus, but only attacks through airstrikes.
  • 19 January: ISIS claims that it has reached Suwayda, in which case it would have reached the southernmost point in Syria.
  • 27 January: After a large airstrike kills nearly 50 ISIS members, it is brought to light that ISIS has gained control of all of Syria, of course using nerve gas, which Vladimir Putin denounces as "unethical and disgusting"
  • 31 January: ISIS goes back on the offensive in Iraq, surrounding Kut and laying siege to the city with a barrage of missile fire.
  • 2 February: Kut is captured and the Iraqi army surrenders, leaving ISIS in control of both Iraq and Syria.
  • 17 February: ISIS announces it now has 125,000 men under arms, which is believed to be due to the forced military service of conquered territories.
  • 22 February: ISIS asks to be recognized as a sovereign entity known simply as "Islamic State," threatening to invade Lebanon and Jordan if denied. Most of the world does not comply, excluding Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
  • 24 Ferbruary: A high ranking IS official is killed in a drone strike. In Jerusalem, a large explosion kills 57 and injures 23. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
  • 27 February: al-Baghdadi places the leader of military operations in Syria in charge of invading Lebanon. The USA gains intelligence that Muslim patriotism and nationalism is very high and rallying around the creation of a caliphate; many people in the middle east begin to shift their opinions on IS and begin sympathizing with or even supporting the cause.

Expansion Accelerates

  • 3 March: A Chinese man is executed and the video of the execution is sent to the Chinese government. China then joins the anti-IS coalition.
  • 5 March: Hezbollah launches rockets into Tripoli and Beirut.
  • 8 March: IS expands its horizons in Libya, capturing a large amount of central Libyan cities from the inept military.
  • 13 March: The USA bombs a large IS-controlled oil field, killing 73 civilians and 41 IS members. There is large backlash from the international community over the civilian deaths and the USA agrees to back off its airstrikes somewhat and pick its targets more carefully.
  • 18 March: IS and Hezbollah massacre the Shiites in Hermel.
  • 22 March: IS troops invade northern Lebanon, reportedly using American made M16s recovered from US military bases in former Iraq.
  • 25 March: Sunnis in Tripoli, Lebanon support IS as it marches through the city and onward to Zgharta in the same day.
  • 30 March: Hezbollah damages several large buildings with rockets in Nabatieh.
  • 4 April: al-Baghdadi reorganizes IS territory into two districts: Bilad al-Iraq and Bilad al-Sham, in which Shiites and non-Muslims are to be rooted out and killed or arrested.
  • 15 April: IS claims responsibility for an attack killing 178 in Algeria.
  • 17 April: al-Qaeda captures Thamud in Yemen and Yemeni rebels capture Mukalla and Azzan.
  • 23 April: A Sunni uprising in Beirut allows IS to enter the city amidst chaos, giving a strategic advantage.
  • 26 April: Beirut falls to IS as an affiliated group in Sinai launches missiles into Cairo and begins capturing the Suez Canal.
  • 29 April: al-Qaeda captures Ghayda in Yemen.
  • 1 May: IS and Hezbollah massacre Shiites in southern Lebanon in a horrific slaughter as others in the north begin converting to avoid persecution.
  • 2 May: Israel presents a 1 year plan for the defeat of IS to the United Nations, who prohibits any large forceful action against it.
  • 5 May: IS captures Tobruk. A commercial plane flies over Tripoli in Libya and drops a large amount of nerve gas on the city killing nearly 500. IS claims responsibility for the attack, and it is presumed that they used a plane from an airport based in Libya.
  • 7 May: IS claims in Libya and Egypt are organized into the Misr district and religious executions begin.
  • 13 May: al-Baghdadi claims to have 150,000 men fighting for his caliphate, and many nations are reluctant to attack due to the backlash received by the USA for its bombing of oil fields.
  • 18 May: Much of the UN finally agrees to recognize IS as a sovereign entity, excluding the United States.
  • 22 May: IS claims responsibility for a car bomb in Hamburg, killing 2 and wounding 6.
  • 25 May: IS reportedly enters Sabha with armored vehicles and great firepower, likely recovered from the governments of their conquered nations. IS begins gassing all who don't agree to convert and forcing them into Bilad al-Iraq for "assessment."
  • 27 May: A group of Sunnis in Kuwait call for IS to rid them of the Shiites in their nation and to add them to the Caliphate.
  • 2 June: IS sends 20,000 men to Kuwait and begins launching missiles over long distances into the small nation.
  • 5 June: IS troops enter Kuwait City and begin forcing the Shiites into Bilad al-Iraq along with the rest.
  • 8 June: The USA resumes airstrikes on IS cities, and is again criticized for killing civilians. Saudi Arabia experiences widespread unrest as Sunni muslims begin harassing the Shia population; many Sunni muslims begin seeing the caliphate as a religious event they must take part in.
  • 19 June: China kills nearly 5,000 people in one day with a massive run of airstrikes.
  • 21 June: Turkey begins firing missiles at IS held territories.
  • 23 June: The Saudi army is forced to fire on its own citizens when Sunnis begin assaulting and murdering Shiites.
  • 27 June: IS in Libya marches through Al Kufrah.
    ISIS 2016 map-2

    Location of the Islamic State at the end of June, 2016

  • 1 July: Islamic State's first self-manufactured military plane bombs Tripoli, garnering international attention.
  • 3 July: Saudi Arabia's government is sent into disarray when the king "goes missing" for a few hours after Sunni rioters attack his convoy in Medina, but he emerges unharmed a few hours later.
  • 8 July: al-Baghdadi announces that he has 230,000 men under arms and over 200 capable fighter planes. American recon planes confirm the latter.
  • 10 July: Turkey bombs IS air bases, severely crippling their newfound air power.
  • 12 July: IS begins the systematic execution of those forced to move to Bilad al-Iraq.
  • 16 July: 2 IS planes are shot down over Sicily.
  • 19 July: IS claims responsibility for an attack in Athens, killing 49 people.
  • 22 July: Tripoli is bombed again, followed by a ground invasion.
  • 26 July: Tripoli falls to the Islamic State, and Israel begins strategic bombing campaigns of their major sources of power and income against the will of the UN.
  • 28 July: Rockets are launched from Misr into southern Israel.
  • 3 August: A massive terror attack in Cairo kills 237 people and wounds nearly 100 more, and IS claims responsibility.
  • 4 August: Israel bombs Damascus and Homs.
  • 7 August: al-Baghdadi promises the swift destruction of the Jewish race.
  • 16 August: al-Qaeda is eliminated in Yemen by the rebels.
  • 20 August: IS planes are shot down over Jerusalem and Nazareth. The US and Turkey bomb IS airfields.
  • 23 August: A barrage of missile fire hits northern Israel.
  • 29 August: al-Baghdadi's plans to invade Jordan are leaked on Twitter by an unknown source.
  • 2 September: Israel is satisfied that it has destroyed Islamic State's air power and rolls back airstrikes.
  • 6 September: Rockets from an unknown location in the Mediterranean hit the western shore of Israel.
  • 11 September: A bomb in Paris kills 8 and IS invades northern Jordan with a small force of American tanks found in Iraq.
    ISIS 2016 map-3

    Location of IS (black) and areas it has attacked (red) in September, 2016

  • 13 September: The USA and Russia coincidentally send about 15,000 troops each to Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively to help protect their allies. The USA officially recognizes the Islamic State as an independent nation.
  • 15 September: Iran declares war on the Islamic State in order to defend the Shiites.
  • 18 September: IS has captured Az Zarga, just outside of Amman, and as far east as Ar Ruweychid.
  • 19 September: al-Baghdadi sends nearly 100,000 men into western Iran in a surprise attack, although Iran is somewhat prepared and is able to hold off the enemy.
  • 23 September: Amman is captured and King Abdullah II cedes his nation to the Islamic State, as nearly the entire population is Sunni and supports IS.
  • 25 September: Iran loses Sanandaj, but forces Islamic State out of all other areas.
  • 30 September: Iran delivers a devastating bombing run to IS cities. The military of Jordan joins forces with IS, giving the fighting force nearly 500,000 total men; nearly matching the military of Iran.

Sunni vs Shia

  • 3 October: More planes are shot down over Nazareth. Basrah is occupied by Iran.
  • 7 October: The Sunni-Shia tensions in Saudi Arabia boil over into a full-blown civil war, and the government sides with the Sunnis.
  • 10 October: Hamadan is bombed. IS begins forcing Shiites from Iran into Bilad al-Iraq.
  • 13 October: Kermanshah is occupied by IS and Al Amarah is occupied by Iran.
  • 14 October: The occupation of Libya is completed.
  • 16 October: Iran loses Hamadan; Israel bombs Amman and Damascus.
  • 18 October: Tabriz falls to the Islamic State, and Iran is pushed out of Al Amarah.
  • 23 October: Zanjan is occupied; IS closes in on Tehran.
  • 27 October: al-Baghdadi announces the 700,000th person has joined the army of the caliphate, prompting a declaration of war by Russia, Israel, the USA, and the EU.
  • 31 October: U.S. troops land in Sicily and prepare to launch an invasion of Misr.
  • 2 November: An IS plot in Tunisia overthrows the government and joins the caliphate, a move consented to by the Sunni majority in the nation.
  • 5 November: The US invades Tripoli and Benghazi; Dezful and Avhaz fall to Islamic State occupation.
  • 7 November: Islamic State bombs Nazareth and occupies the west bank. The Saudi civil war ends in a total Shiite defeat, in which a large northern half of the country joins the caliphate and a small state of "Arabia" is created.
  • 8 November: Republican Donald Trump narrowly defeats opponent Bernie Sanders for the presidency of the United States.
  • 10 November: Yasuj and Shiraz fall to the Islamic State in an increasingly one-sided war. The USA is forced to evacuate Tripoli.
  • 12 November: Bushehr is captured by IS, and Iran capitulates, allowing IS to keep all land they have occupied thus far, leaving them to fend off the coalition of nations attacking in other areas.
  • 15 November: IS forces begin moving all captured Shiites who refuse to convert to Bilad al-Iraq.
  • 16 November: IS squares off with Russian forces in Azerbaijan and Armenia as German and Italian planes hit the northern coast of Misr, including Cairo.
  • 20 November: Sicily is bombed, crippling the American air forces there, as an assassination attempt is made on the Pope's life.
  • 22 November: Israel threatens nuclear retaliation in the event of an attack on Israeli soil.
  • 25 November: The Russians are forced out of the Caucasus region and the Caucasian countries are annexed by Islamic State.
  • 26 November: Coalition forces struggle to reach the mainland of the caliphate as another invasion of Benghazi fails miserably.
  • 5 December: Former Kuwait is invaded from the Persian Gulf and a large force of around 200,000 successfully reaches a few miles inland and establishes a camp.
  • 7 December: As IS troops deal with the Kuwait situation, another large force successfully lands in Tunis.
  • 9 December: Large bombing runs are initiated on central Asia by IS.
  • 13 December: al-Baghdadi announces the extermination of all non-Sunni inhabitants of the caliphate.
  • 15 December: The forces in Tunisia enter Misr to heavy resistance.
  • 16 December: After a slaughter, the coalition forces leave the western caliphate and IS invades Algeria with a large force.
    ISIS 2017-1

    The Baghdadi Caliphate at the end of 2016 w/ regions

  • 19 December: IS loses Baghdad.
  • 25 December: The caliphate is renamed the "Baghdadi Caliphate"


  • 3 January: The coalition, outnumbered, attempts to broker a peace with the caliphate, in which the caliphate is given the rest of the Arabian Peninsula which is organized into Yaman, and the rest of northern Africa, which joins Bilad al-Maghreb
  • 7 January: Trump is inaugurated and redeclares war on the caliphate.

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