Prediction methodology is a set of techniques used for forecasting the future.

Futurology used such techniques as linear projections and extrapolations from trends, scenario-building, and what-if stories.

Futures studies, the field that emerged from futurology, has devised additional techniques, including emerging issues analysis, scanning, and layered causal analysis.

The main technique used by technology foresight, the latest prediction methodology, is the Delphi survey and further developed scenario method.

Science fiction authors have made many correct technological predictions, starting with Jules Verne, Herbert Wells and Alexander Belyaev. G. Altshuller has developed TRIZ - a methology of creativity that can also be used for predicting possible technological developments.

See also Edit

• Cross-impact analysis, backtracking, technological determinism

External links Edit

• An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies — Delphi, Environmental scanning, Issues management and Emerging issue analysis
• Futures techniques at wikipedia.
• Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis. For the UN University Millennium Project. From the Swedish Morphological Society

ReferencesEdit

• The Accidental Futurist