Little Cold War (The Second Renaissance)

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The Little Cold War also known as Cold War II or the Second Cold War (approx. 2013–2022) was a state of ongoing tensions, hostilities, and rivalry between the European Union and the United States against the Eurasian Union. Unlike the First Cold War, this conflict was largely over regional security issues, rather than an overarching economic and ideological conflict. The Union State created the Eurasian Union with the Central Asian and Caucasian countries it occupied, maintaining these as satellite states.

The official start date of the Second Cold War is often debated, but most historians agree that it began in earnest in 2014 with the Ukrainian Civil War. Russia and Belarus shortly formed the Union State after this event and moved most of the authority of the Commonwealth of Independent States to Moscow, forming the Eurasian Union in January 2015.

Much like the first Cold War, the second was ultimately about Russia's relationship with the rest of Europe, particularly with respect to its lack of natural borders in the East European Plain that had been exploited by every western invader since Napoleon. Unlike the previous Cold War, this conflict also took into account Russia's population crunch and European dependency on Russian oil and natural gas.

Resources proved to be the Eurasian Union's greatest advantage during the conflict, and under the leadership of Vladimir Putin the country was able to build up enough capitol from the exportation of natural resources to develop the Union Military to be on par with that of the United States by the late 2010s. The Russian dominance over European Energy also proved to be affective at intimidating most of Western Europe and therefore NATO from engaging with the conflict, resulting in the start of the organizations decline. Only the Eastern European NATO countries remained involved in the conflict, under heavy support from the United States via technology transfer and military aid. Russia also used their energy dominance to keep the Ukraine in their sphere of influence, despite much of the country's opposition to Russian military intervention.

Poland became the greatest ally of the United States during this period and grew to become one of the most powerful economies in Europe by its end. Second only to Poland were the Baltic States, which faced the largest concentration of Union Military forces on their border of any country.

Little Cold War

European Alliances after most Western Europe's withdrawal from NATO.

While Europe played the largest and most visible part of the Second Cold War, the Caucasus and the Middle East remained the most active area of proxy combat between the two sides. American sponsored Chechnyan and Georgian insurgents and Russian sponsored regimes in Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria, led to a number of small conflicts in the region.

This conflict also forced the US to re-evaluate its relationship with the Middle East; an area that had seen decades of military intervention by the United States. The most radical shift in US Policy in this region was with Iran, whose alliance, formed after years of negotiations and the war with the Islamic State enabled the US to withdraw all combat troops in Afghanistan and Iraq (save for Balad Air Base) creating a new balance of power. Israel remained an ally of the United States but was officially neutral.

The conflict ultimately ended once the US began to focus on de-emphasizing hydrocarbons to weaken Russia’s influence in Europe, and ultimately remove the country's economic linchpin. With an exceedingly useless hydrocarbon industry, and burdened by military expenditures Russia began to fall behind the US technologically and soon faced economic collapse in the early 2020s.

Eurasian Union

With a stagnant economy, growing demographic concerns, and government bankruptcy brought on by years of conflict against Chechnya, the Union State formally collapsed on May 14, 2023, resulting in the formal end of the Little Cold War and Russia itself.

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