Futurology: Hype Cycle
From Future
Described by Gartner consultants, the "hype curve" shows over-hype at the beginning, then a crash ("trough of disillusionment") as inflated expectations get pushed aside by the reality of performance, then a gradual restoration as the benefits are better understood and realized, mature and stable offerings emerge. [1]
http://www.rfid-weblog.com/archives/gartnerhypecyclesmall.gif
With hype cycle we tend to overestimate the potential of the technology early in its life cycle and underestimate it after initial disappointments. As we get closer to realising the initial promises our perception of it gets closer to the "correct" one.
"Media always portray new technology in alarmist, 'the world ends tomorrow' fashion," she says. "You get the sense that MySpace is ... some kind of culty illicit community. That's really not what's going on."
To show adults a more accurate picture of how teens use the internet, Gowen developed the Virtual Mystery Tour workshop ...
-- "Teens Online: Not a Freak Zone" by Regina Lynn 2006-07-28
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
Gartner Hype Cycle graph for the year 2005.
