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A Formula for the Future, by User:Yunzhong Hou
I endorse realism in futurology. After all, without it, one’s work is seldom applicable whatsoever. Some principles that I believe, and which I hope others will also support, are as follows:
- None of the laws of nature are to be disobeyed. This includes laws of causality, logic, physics, light speed as the limit, mathematical and scientific theorems and rules, etc. set forth at Certainties.
- If you are going to break any of these rules, you must first prove beyond a reasonable doubt that your theory is actually correct;
- Otherwise, label everything that follows from an assumption as a scenario.
- No one knows what the future holds exactly; that is why we need various timelines, time trees, scenarios, and so forth.
- Singularity cannot be achieved because of the Uncertainty Principle. Nothing involving post singularity is acceptable.
- All predictions must follow the rules set forth at Guideline.
- Good penmanship is essential.
- Avoid bias.
- Mark uncertainties or wild cards as such.
- Recognize the limitations.
- Fully justify each change that occurs.
- Unless you are writing an article about religion, philosophy, ethics, belief, or political system, do not endorse it in your writing.
- Recognize the points of divergence.
- The more radical a change, the more it needs to be explored before it may be used in futurology.
- Technologies currently being used or are mainstream are definite candidates for inclusion in any forecast.
- Technologies currently under investigation should have a link to an outside source specifying that a reasonable number of experts believe in its capability for success and application in the future.
- Technologies to be investigated in the near future (1-10 years) need at least some amount of rationalization behind them. Recognize that they may not bear fruition in the way that you expect them to. Depending on the quality and depth of the rationalization, these may or may not require labeling as scenarios.
- Technologies to be investigated in the far future need whole articles of significant length dedicated to explaining them though sound rationalization. Recognize that even so, they are very unlikely to bear fruition the way you expect them to. Articles involving these should be labeled scenarios.
- New theorems, scientific rules, and postulates should be fully presented on their own articles prior to being included elsewhere. It is better to accompany articles with proofs of them. Without proofs, such articles should be labeled scenarios.
- Certain events that can drastically alter the future are known as points of divergence and should be labeled as scenarios. Wild cards need only the most basic rationalization.
- Recognize that technology, society, politics, and environment influence each other.
- All articles on a subject matter should present what happens in the interim and rationalize their own possibility for occurring. This means that an article should not skip a few years, because much can happen in those years.
- All articles based even partially on scenarios are themselves scenarios and should be labeled so.
--Yunzhong Hou 21:16, 18 October 2006 (UTC)