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Extrapolation is the key to understanding and predicting where the world will go toward in the future. We see trends all around us, from the increasingly advanced technology that we call 'progress' to the rise of China to world power status to the increasing rate of change. These trends will likely continue into the foreseeable future, and form the core of all of our predictions. Events that are not warranted by extrapolation methods will not be valuable. In order to be an effective forecaster, you must first learn the trend-recognition skills crucial to futurology.