Friedman Scenario

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This scenario covers the geopolitical forcasts made by STRATFOR founder and intelligence analyst Dr. George Friedman in his books "The Next Decade," and "The Next 100 Years."


  • Within the next decade the United States will build new regional power ballences by creating competing relationships, which offset one another, in the world's different regions.
  • A second American Cold War with Russia will occur in the 2010s.
    • Russia will ally with Germany, will make attempts to expand its sphere of influence, and will continue to build up its military to the point where it can pose a challenge to the United States.
    • Around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period.
      • America will become a close ally of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, who may form a Polish-led military alliance during this period, which Friedman refers to as the "Polish Bloc".
    • Around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a Second Cold War.
  • By 2020 China will politically and culturally fragment as well.
    • Internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons.
    • China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.
  • The collapse of central authority in Russia and fragmentation in China will leave Eurasia in general chaos, allowing the secession and annexation of numerous regions.
    • Chechnya and other Muslim regions, as well as the Pacific Basin will secede from Russia
    • Finland will annex Karelia
    • Romania will annex Moldova
    • Tibet will gain independence with Indian assistance
    • Taiwan will extend its influence into China
    • The United States and European nations create regional spheres of influence in China.
  • In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia.
    • Turkey
      • Turkey will expand its sphere of influence into the Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and into what was once Russia and the former Soviet Union.
    • Japan
      • Japan will expand its influence to Chinese regions and many Pacific Islands.
    • Poland
      • Poland will continue to dominate Eastern Europe through the "Polish Bloc".
  • The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests.
  • Japan and Turkey will form an alliance near the end of 2030s, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States.
    • It is unlikely that Germany and Mexico would join this anti-United States coalition, though the Turks and Japanese will try to coax their cooperation.
    • In This conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", and probably with China, India, a United Korea and Britain which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France and Germany side with Turkey as well.
  • A Third World War between the two coalitions will break out sometime around 2050. **The war will be started by a coordinated sneak attack against the United States and its allies by the Japanese and Turkish empires.
    • The war will be a form of limited war, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war, such as World War II of the 20th century.
    • The United States and its allies will win
    • The war will last two to three years.
    • The war will cost approximately 50,000 lives.
  • After the war, the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060s due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time.
    • A new alternative to energy from solar spaced based power systems would redefine the use of power and resources.
  • In the decades following the war, starting in the 2070s, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise.
    • By this time, many parts of the United States, especially the South West, will become predominantly, ethnically, culturally and socially Mexican.
    • The United States would start seeing immigration decades after the immigration policies of 2030, as a problem.
    • Starting in the 2030s, Mexican immigrants will begin behaving like an extension of their homeland living in occupied territory rather than an immigrant community in a foreign nation.
    • During this period, Mexican economic growth and population growth will be substantial.
    • Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America
      • North America will remain the center of gravity for the global system throughout the next few centuries.
    • The conflict will likely continue into the 22nd Century.


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Friedman in the third chapter of his book "The Next 100 Years" makes an elaborate case for the argument that, late stage industrialization led to skilled labor becoming necessary, which made 20-year long training of children necessary through education. Education delays employment, which delays the return-on-investment in children, which leads to people having fewer children, and that frees up women to become more financially independent, which leads to marriages not being based on economic necessity but on sentiment and that leads to more divorces initiated by women and alternate sexual lifestyles like polyamory. Delayed employment of children also delays marriage which leads to pre-marital promiscuity. Fewer children also create labor shortages which need to be solved using immigration which is justified using multiculturalism.

His argument can be summarized using the flowchart on the right.

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