Emperia State Election, 2045

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Emperia State Election, 2045
164 Seats elected by FPTP 82 Needed to form Government
May 8, 2045
Turnout	1,319,001 (48%)
	Results of the 2045 Emperia State Election by constituency
	Governor before election; pre-creation; Elected Governor; Martin Shires; Proud Nation

Overview[]

The 2045 Emperia State Election was the first Emperia state election conducted after the Second Constitution was adopted, which included a massive devolution of power to state governments.

Martin Shires had been elected Premier of Emperia prior to Confederation in January 2045 under the Liberty Coalition. However, the new state government would ultimately be much more powerful than the previous one, with the vast ability to tax and spend resources and the responsibility with providing nearly all major public services.

The previous two-coalition party system had ended which led to the rise of the new multi-party system. Under this system, along with first-past-the-post voting in geographic constituencies, Martin Shires won with his Emperian Proud Nation party a majority government with 93 seats, despite winning only 32% of the vote.

The Campaign[]

After confederation at the beginning of the year, instructions were given to each state to create their own system of state government and a deadline to hold their first state elections by the end of the year was put in place. Emperia decided to wait until after the federal elections to begin discussing a date for beginning the campaign or how to structure the political system.

On March 1st, it was announced that a three day window would open to register parties to compete in the general election. It was also revealed that 164 constituencies were drawn to send one member to the Emperian Parliament each, to be elected on the first-past-the-post basis.

The leader of the party that can command the confidence of the Emperian Parliament will become Governor of Emperia.

The parties that competed in the election were:

Proud Nation (center-right)- affiliated with the federal Proud Nation party
Democratic Party (center)- affiliated with the federal Democratic Party
Social Progress & Labour Party of Emperia (center-left to left-wing) loosely (not formally) aligned with the federal Social Progress Party
Liberty Union (right-wing) no federal affiliation
Green Party (left-wing)- affiliated with federal Green Party
Australian Heritage Union (far-right)- affiliated with federal AHU

The Conventions[]

Each party scheduled to hold open conventions to nominate party leaders and select candidates for each constituency, along with the creation of the official party manifesto.

Proud Nation[]

Proud Nation's convention saw current Emperia Premier Martin Shires win narrowly over Octavia Mayor Lawrence Tillis. Tillis was subsequently selected as the candidate for MEP of Octavia-North. Proud Nation's manifesto was largely right-wing with promise to protect gun rights, keep taxes low, and curtail the growth of government.

Candidate	Current Position	Vote	%
Martin Shires	Premier	1,032	54.0%
Lawrence Tillis	Mayor of Octavia	881	46.0%

Democratic Party[]

The Democratic Party's convention drew members who were formerly of both the Liberty and Progressive coalitions. A contentious battle took place for leader of the party. Millionaire businessman Lacy Dimondale, a former Liberty MHR from Kari, won the leadership on the second ballot. The party's manifesto was largely centrist, focusing on combining elements of right-wing small government theory with left-wing social democratic theory.

Candidate	Current Position	1st Round	%	2nd Round	%
Lacy Dimondale	MHR from Kari	406	45.0%	681	75.4%
Gregory Mastif	MHR from Delta	185	20.5%	222	24.6%
Jean Aléqueçiaux	Co. Marois councillor	132	14.6%
Ellen Kinder	no prior position	104	11.5%
John Hardwood	no prior position	76	8.4%

Several candidates had pre-announced up to two years in advance that they would seek the UDP leadership at the convention. The first day of the convention had the members present vote for their leader. In order to be present, candidates must have been selected as delegates during the UDP primary elections on April 20th. Of the 1,100 delegates selected, 1,024 arrived to vote at the convention. Delegates heard speeches from all candidates running for the leadership and then voted on a paper ballot using the Instant Runoff Voting method. The first round results were announced in which Vinnie Hartkeel topped the poll with 27% and Opposition Leader Sylvia Nihal in second place at 21%. Two hours later, the IRV results were announced in which Nihal had been eliminated according to the preference counts and Hartkeel won 57.8% of final preference votes and Shadow Foreign Minister Seamus Leverne won 42.2% of final preference votes.

The Final Weeks[]

After the conventions, held between April 23rd and April 30th, each party had their leader to become Prime Minister. The UDP's lead over Culik began to shrink as Evan Gracie took his party's campaign into high gear. The two smaller parties, the SIP and the Dominionist Party both ran campaigns hoping to capitalize on disaffected Culik voters. The UDP had been effectively running a campaign against Culik for the previous three years.

The first leaders debate was held in New Scotland Hall in New Scotland, Emperia on May 6th. All four party leaders attended. Evan Gracie had been known worldwide as an expert debater and eloquent speaker, and despite his previous unpopularity, he was able to win the debate according to most polls. The new leader of the Domionist Party, Will Cincinnatti, also did fairly well in an attempt to make the case for Christians to support his party. Vinnie Hartkeel fell flat when Gracie attempted to compare him to his troublemaking dad.

The second debate was held in duPonttown, Darlington on May 18th between Evan Gracie and Vinnie Hartkeel. The debate was viewed as an ultimate one-on-one matchup between the two men who could be Prime Minister after the election. Hartkeel was viewed to have bested Gracie in the debate.

The UDP was leading in the polls for most of the election, but Gracie's debate win in the first debate nudged Culik into a small lead in the final two weeks. Hartkeel's strong debate performance in the second debate caused Culik's lead to slip and the UDP began topping the poll. The final poll the day before the election indicated a 1% lead for the UDP over Culik. However, Culik ended up beating the UDP on election day by 1 point.

Opinion Polls[]

Opinion polls for the Emperia State Election, 2045
Date Published	Proud Nation	Democratic Party	SPLP	LU	Green	AHU
ACTUAL RESULT	32%	22%	18%	10%	11%	7%
EXIT POLL	30%	24%	20%	8%	12%	6%
May 7, 2045	23%	22%	14%	6%	7%	4%
May 4, 2045	24%	19%	12%	6%	6%	4%
May 1, 2045	29%	16%	17%	7%	8%	4%
April 28, 2045	27%	18%	17%	9%	6%	3%
April 20, 2045	39%	10%	14%	7%	6%	2%
April 14, 2045	51%	6%	10%	4%	3%	2%
April 9, 2045	48%	6%	18%	5%	7%	3%
April 1, 2045	42%	6%	12%	5%	8%	0%
March 20, 2045	31%	8%	13%	4%	10%	1%
March 3, 2045	20%	2%	9%	6%	14%	1%

Results[]

2045 Emperia State Election
Party	Leader	Leader's Seat	Seats Won	Seats +/-	Percent	Vote	Percent +/-
Proud Nation	Martin Shires	Baunsington-LeMay Park	93	-	32.0%	421,491	-
Democratic Party	Lacy Dimondale	Kari-Lester	34	-	22.1%	291,692	-
Social Progress & Labour Party	Larry Neumann	Ville du Lac- Aléquçiaux	27	-	17.7%	232,961	-
Liberty Union	George Meyers	Lower Phinston-Southwest	7	-	9.7%	127,602	-
Green Party	Becky Freudenthal	South Pointe	2	-	11.1%	146,692
Australian Heritage Union	Sammy Wilcox	Did not stand	1	-	7.4%	98,563
Total			164			1,319,001