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Emperia State Election, 2045

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Overview

The 2045 Emperia State Election was the first Emperia state election conducted after the Second Constitution was adopted, which included a massive devolution of power to state governments.

Martin Shires had been elected Premier of Emperia prior to Confederation in January 2045 under the Liberty Coalition. However, the new state government would ultimately be much more powerful than the previous one, with the vast ability to tax and spend resources and the responsibility with providing nearly all major public services.

The previous two-coalition party system had ended which led to the rise of the new multi-party system. Under this system, along with first-past-the-post voting in geographic constituencies, Martin Shires won with his Emperian Proud Nation party a majority government with 93 seats, despite winning only 32% of the vote.

The Campaign

After confederation at the beginning of the year, instructions were given to each state to create their own system of state government and a deadline to hold their first state elections by the end of the year was put in place. Emperia decided to wait until after the federal elections to begin discussing a date for beginning the campaign or how to structure the political system.

On March 1st, it was announced that a three day window would open to register parties to compete in the general election. It was also revealed that 164 constituencies were drawn to send one member to the Emperian Parliament each, to be elected on the first-past-the-post basis.

The leader of the party that can command the confidence of the Emperian Parliament will become Governor of Emperia.

The parties that competed in the election were:

  • Proud Nation (center-right)- affiliated with the federal Proud Nation party
  • Democratic Party (center)- affiliated with the federal Democratic Party
  • Social Progress & Labour Party of Emperia (center-left to left-wing) loosely (not formally) aligned with the federal Social Progress Party
  • Liberty Union (right-wing) no federal affiliation
  • Green Party (left-wing)- affiliated with federal Green Party
  • Australian Heritage Union (far-right)- affiliated with federal AHU

The Conventions

Each party scheduled to hold open conventions to nominate party leaders and select candidates for each constituency, along with the creation of the official party manifesto.

Proud Nation

Proud Nation's convention saw current Emperia Premier Martin Shires win narrowly over Octavia Mayor Lawrence Tillis. Tillis was subsequently selected as the candidate for MEP of Octavia-North. Proud Nation's manifesto was largely right-wing with promise to protect gun rights, keep taxes low, and curtail the growth of government.

Candidate Current Position Vote %
Martin Shires Premier 1,032 54.0%
Lawrence Tillis Mayor of Octavia 881 46.0%

Democratic Party

The Democratic Party's convention drew members who were formerly of both the Liberty and Progressive coalitions. A contentious battle took place for leader of the party. Millionaire businessman Lacy Dimondale, a former Liberty MHR from Kari, won the leadership on the second ballot. The party's manifesto was largely centrist, focusing on combining elements of right-wing small government theory with left-wing social democratic theory.

Candidate Current Position 1st Round % 2nd Round %
Lacy Dimondale MHR from Kari 406 45.0% 681 75.4%
Gregory Mastif MHR from Delta 185 20.5% 222 24.6%
Jean Aléqueçiaux Co. Marois councillor 132 14.6%
Ellen Kinder no prior position 104 11.5%
John Hardwood no prior position 76 8.4%

Several candidates had pre-announced up to two years in advance that they would seek the UDP leadership at the convention. The first day of the convention had the members present vote for their leader. In order to be present, candidates must have been selected as delegates during the UDP primary elections on April 20th. Of the 1,100 delegates selected, 1,024 arrived to vote at the convention. Delegates heard speeches from all candidates running for the leadership and then voted on a paper ballot using the Instant Runoff Voting method. The first round results were announced in which Vinnie Hartkeel topped the poll with 27% and Opposition Leader Sylvia Nihal in second place at 21%. Two hours later, the IRV results were announced in which Nihal had been eliminated according to the preference counts and Hartkeel won 57.8% of final preference votes and Shadow Foreign Minister Seamus Leverne won 42.2% of final preference votes.

The Final Weeks

After the conventions, held between April 23rd and April 30th, each party had their leader to become Prime Minister. The UDP's lead over Culik began to shrink as Evan Gracie took his party's campaign into high gear. The two smaller parties, the SIP and the Dominionist Party both ran campaigns hoping to capitalize on disaffected Culik voters. The UDP had been effectively running a campaign against Culik for the previous three years.

The first leaders debate was held in New Scotland Hall in New Scotland, Emperia on May 6th. All four party leaders attended. Evan Gracie had been known worldwide as an expert debater and eloquent speaker, and despite his previous unpopularity, he was able to win the debate according to most polls. The new leader of the Domionist Party, Will Cincinnatti, also did fairly well in an attempt to make the case for Christians to support his party. Vinnie Hartkeel fell flat when Gracie attempted to compare him to his troublemaking dad.

The second debate was held in duPonttown, Darlington on May 18th between Evan Gracie and Vinnie Hartkeel. The debate was viewed as an ultimate one-on-one matchup between the two men who could be Prime Minister after the election. Hartkeel was viewed to have bested Gracie in the debate.

The UDP was leading in the polls for most of the election, but Gracie's debate win in the first debate nudged Culik into a small lead in the final two weeks. Hartkeel's strong debate performance in the second debate caused Culik's lead to slip and the UDP began topping the poll. The final poll the day before the election indicated a 1% lead for the UDP over Culik. However, Culik ended up beating the UDP on election day by 1 point.

Opinion Polls

Opinion polls for the Emperia State Election, 2045
Date Published Proud Nation Democratic

Party

SPLP LU Green AHU
ACTUAL RESULT 32% 22% 18% 10% 11% 7%
EXIT POLL 30% 24% 20% 8% 12% 6%
May 7, 2045 23% 22% 14% 6% 7% 4%
May 4, 2045 24% 19% 12% 6% 6% 4%
May 1, 2045 29% 16% 17% 7% 8% 4%
April 28, 2045 27% 18% 17% 9% 6% 3%
April 20, 2045 39% 10% 14% 7% 6% 2%
April 14, 2045 51% 6% 10% 4% 3% 2%
April 9, 2045 48% 6% 18% 5% 7% 3%
April 1, 2045 42% 6% 12% 5% 8% 0%
March 20, 2045 31% 8% 13% 4% 10% 1%
March 3, 2045 20% 2% 9% 6% 14% 1%

Results

2045 Emperia State Election
Party Leader Leader's Seat Seats Won Seats +/- Percent Vote Percent +/-
Proud Nation Martin Shires Baunsington-LeMay Park 93 - 32.0% 421,491 -
Democratic Party Lacy Dimondale Kari-Lester 34 - 22.1% 291,692 -
Social Progress & Labour Party Larry Neumann Ville du Lac- Aléquçiaux 27 - 17.7% 232,961 -
Liberty Union George Meyers Lower Phinston-Southwest 7 - 9.7% 127,602 -
Green Party Becky Freudenthal South Pointe 2 - 11.1% 146,692
Australian Heritage Union Sammy Wilcox Did not stand 1 - 7.4% 98,563
Total 164 1,319,001

Aftermath

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