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Dresden Federal Election, 2068

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2065 DresdenFlag2  2072
Dresden Federal Election, 2068
200 Seats elected by PR

101 Needed to form Government

January 31, 2068
Turnout 53,669,140 (91%)
First party Second party Third party
Blank person Blank person Blank person
Leader Evan Gracie Vinnie Hartkeel Tom Rittert
Party Culik UDP SIP
Leader's seat Zimmermann West & South Dachary Central Baunsington- Garrison
Seats won 118 79 2
Seat change Increase 36 Decrease 1 Decrease 20
Popular vote 25,943,553 16,495,432 7,043,211
Percentage 48.3% 30.7% 13.1%
Swing Increase 7.0% Decrease 9.1% Increase 2.3%
Incumbent Prime Minister
Evan Gracie
Culik
Elected Prime Minister
Evan Gracie
Culik

Overview

The 2068 Dresden Federal Election was the sixth federal general election conducted after the Second Constitution was adopted.

The election saw the incumbent Culik government led by Prime Minister Evan Gracie lose their majority. Culik lost exactly 20 percentage points of support from the previous election and fell to 82 seats, just 2 ahead of the newly formed United Democratic Party. After one full week of negotiations, Culik was able to form a coalition with the States' Independence Party on the agreement that there would be a

After riding a high wave into a third term majority government, controlling 61% of seats in Parliament, Prime Minister Evan Gracie began to usher in a laundry list of right-wing policy. Among which was the removal of any federal gun legislation. In 2063, 45 people were killed in a mass public shooting in Verano, Kent. The Prime Minister placed blame on the Kent state government while most placed blame on the Culik federal government and Gracie himself.

The economy did not dip and immigration to the island nation continued, but many felt that the country had entered a state of malaise. Approval for the Prime Minister fell to a record low of 29% in December of 2063. The center and left wing opposition had already coalesced into the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the party was reaching the 50% in the polls. The Prime Minister resisted calls to step down as party leader and called for a renegotiation of states' rights. This was seen as making steps to repair the damage done over the response to the shooting. A divided party narrowly reinstalled a federal gun law, which increased support for the Prime Minister and the party.

Eight years into the current Parliament, with polls showing Culik slightly behind, Prime Minister Evan Gracie dropped the writ on April 10th and announced the election date of May 31, 2065.

The Campaign

The campaign officially began on April 20, 2065. Parties had been anticipating an election for several years, which left parties well funded and capable of competing in the election.

The parties that competed in the election were:

  • Culik (center-right)
  • Leftist Union (center-left)
  • Democratic Party (center)
  • States' Independence Party (right-wing regional soverigntists)
  • Dominonist Party (far-right Christian theocrats)

The Conventions

Culik

At the Culik Party Convention, Prime Minister Evan Gracie was opposed by MP Jason Marois of Boré and three other token opposition candidates. He won with 60% of the vote on the first round with Marois winning 23%. In the IRV count, which wasn't announced until later, Gracie defeated Marois head to head by a margin of 67% fo 33%. He called for the Culik party to unite around their manifesto build momentum going into the election. He urged to public to give him and his party one more chance to keep the nation "unique, growing, and prosperous."

Candidate Current Position Vote % IRV IRV %
Evan Gracie Prime Minister 546 59.6% 622 67.4%
Jason Marois MP of Boré 214 23.4% 301 32.6%
Penelope Bates Mayor of Tom Canyon, Atlanta 103 11.2%
Jeff Rollins Namco MLA from Baun-Glasgow 34 3.7%
Marlene Diego MP of Emperia 19 2.1%

United Democratic Party

Candidates for Party Leader

  • Sylvia Nihal, Opposition Leader and Incumbent- never announced but was always known to stand.
  • Vince "Vinnie" Hartkeel, Governor of Darlington- announced December 21, 2063
  • Seamus Leverne, Shadow Foreign Minister- announced January 14, 2064
  • Tom Hardwall, MP of Emperia- announced August 15, 2064
  • John Robinson, Mayor of Baunsington, Emp.- announced January 4, 2065
  • Edna Carswell, Lieutenant Governor of Metropolan- announced April 10, 2065
  • Georgia McVey, Mayor of Pleasant Hills, Tan.- announced April 12, 2065
Candidate Current Position Vote % IRV IRV%
Vinnie Hartkeel Governor of Darlington 305 26.5% 592 57.8%
Sylvia Nihal Opp. Leader/ Incumbent 243 21.1%
Seamus Leverne Shadow Foreign Minister 215 18.7% 432 42.2%
Georgia McVey Mayor of Pleasant Hills, Tan. 143 12.4%
John Robinson Mayor of Baunsington, Emp. 122 10.6%
Edna Carswell Lt. Governor of Metropolan 98 8.5%
Tom Hardwall MP of Emperia 26 2.3%

Several candidates had pre-announced up to two years in advance that they would seek the UDP leadership at the convention. The first day of the convention had the members present vote for their leader. In order to be present, candidates must have been selected as delegates during the UDP primary elections on April 20th. Of the 1,100 delegates selected, 1,024 arrived to vote at the convention. Delegates heard speeches from all candidates running for the leadership and then voted on a paper ballot using the Instant Runoff Voting method. The first round results were announced in which Vinnie Hartkeel topped the poll with 27% and Opposition Leader Sylvia Nihal in second place at 21%. Two hours later, the IRV results were announced in which Nihal had been eliminated according to the preference counts and Hartkeel won 57.8% of final preference votes and Shadow Foreign Minister Seamus Leverne won 42.2% of final preference votes.

The Final Weeks

After the conventions, held between April 23rd and April 30th, each party had their leader to become Prime Minister. The UDP's lead over Culik began to shrink as Evan Gracie took his party's campaign into high gear. The two smaller parties, the SIP and the Dominionist Party both ran campaigns hoping to capitalize on disaffected Culik voters. The UDP had been effectively running a campaign against Culik for the previous three years.

The first leaders debate was held in New Scotland Hall in New Scotland, Emperia on May 6th. All four party leaders attended. Evan Gracie had been known worldwide as an expert debater and eloquent speaker, and despite his previous unpopularity, he was able to win the debate according to most polls. The new leader of the Domionist Party, Will Cincinnatti, also did fairly well in an attempt to make the case for Christians to support his party. Vinnie Hartkeel fell flat when Gracie attempted to compare him to his troublemaking dad.

The second debate was held in duPonttown, Darlington on May 18th between Evan Gracie and Vinnie Hartkeel. The debate was viewed as an ultimate one-on-one matchup between the two men who could be Prime Minister after the election. Hartkeel was viewed to have bested Gracie in the debate.

The UDP was leading in the polls for most of the election, but Gracie's debate win in the first debate nudged Culik into a small lead in the final two weeks. Hartkeel's strong debate performance in the second debate caused Culik's lead to slip and the UDP began topping the poll. The final poll the day before the election indicated a 1% lead for the UDP over Culik. However, Culik ended up beating the UDP on election day by 1 point.

Opinion Polls

Opinion polls for the Dresden Federal Election, 2065
Date(s)
administered
Culik UDP SIP Dominonist
ACTUAL RESULT 41% 40% 11% 8%
EXIT POLL 41% 39% 13% 7%
May 30, 2065 39% 40% 12% 9%
May 28, 2065 38% 42% 10% 10%
May 26, 2065 37% 43% 11% 9%
May 24, 2065 41% 40% 12% 7%
May 22, 2065 39% 42% 11% 8%
May 20, 2065 40% 40% 14% 6%
May 18, 2065 40% 41% 14% 5%
May 16, 2065 42% 40% 13% 5%
May 14, 2065 43% 39% 15% 3%
May 12, 2065 42% 40% 15% 3%
May 10, 2065 41% 43% 13% 3%
May 8, 2065 40% 41% 13% 6%
May 6, 2065 42% 43% 12% 3%
May 4, 2065 41% 43% 13% 3%
May 2, 2065 39% 45% 12% 4%
April 30, 2065 37% 46% 12% 5%
April 25, 2065 38% 48% 12% 2%
April 20, 2065 37% 51% 10% 2%
April 13, 2065 38% 46% 13% 3%
March 23, 2065 40% 44% 12% 4%
February 16, 2065 39% 46% 14% 1%
January 15, 2065 35% 51% 12% 2%
Average of Polls 2064 31% 51% 15% 2%
Average of Polls 2063 28% 54% 15% 3%
Average of Polls 2062 32% 52% 13% 3%

Results

2065 Dresden Federal Election
Party Leader Leader's Seat Seats Won Seats +/- Percent Vote Percent +/-
Culik Evan Gracie Zimmermann, Namco 82 Decrease40 41.3% 15,544,562 Decrease20.0%
United Democratic Party Vinnie Hartkeel Dachary, Darlington 80 Increase24 39.8% 14,954,336 Increase12.2%
States' Independence Party Tom Rittert Phinston, Emperia 22 Increase8 10.8% 4,043,228 Increase3.7%
Dominionist Party Will Cincinnati Plaquamine Heights, Kent 16 Increase16 8.1% 3,054,338 Increase4.1%
Total 200 37,596,464

Aftermath

On election night, it was clear that Culik would finish ahead of the UDP, but no one had 50% of the vote and 101 seats. Most networks projected that Gracie would remain Prime Minister and the government would likely go into coalition with the SIP. Vinnie Hartkeel conceded the election, indicating no interest in going into a coalition with the SIP and acknowledging coming in 2 seats behind Culik.

The Domionist Party acknowledged that they were not going to make any deal with any party as all other parties allowed non-Christian members. Culik had a long standing promise to never associate with the Dominionists, even if their government depended on it. The SIP had a laundry list of wishes in order to form a coalition with Culik.

Prime Minister Evan Gracie announced on June 3rd that he would form a minority government. The new parliament convened on June 7th and as usual started with a confidence vote. The minority Culik government failed the vote 93-107. Several UDP members voted for the Government, hoping to keep the SIP out of government. The Prime Minister weighed his options and immediately announced his intention to start coalition talks with the SIP. The SIP brought up a vote to nullify the previous vote, the only way to keep a new election from being called. It passed 102-98, with 2 Culik members voting against.

Culik demanded that a referendum be held to change the voting system from proportional representation (PR) to single member district plurality (SMDP) or first past the post (FPTP). They also wanted a referendum to force the Prime Minister to choose his cabinet from outside of Parliament and have Parliament to confirm cabinet members. Culik reluctantly agreed to these demands. Outside of Tom Rittert becoming Deputy Prime Minister, the Prime Minister refused to allow any member of the SIP to join the cabinet.

The Parliamentary Culik Party approved the coalition 51-31 and the Parliamentary SIP approved the coalition by a vote of 16-5.

Prime Minister Evan Gracie called the parliament to convene on June 12th and the confidence vote passed with full approval from both government parties.

The Gracie VI Government:

  • Culik- 82
  • SIP- 22

Government: 104

Official Opposition: 80

Other Opposition: 16

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