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Dresden Federal Election, 2049

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Dresden Federal Election, 2046
DresdenFlag

2046May 4, 2049 2050

200 Members of the Dresden Parliament
Leader Marta Barrancivon Arni Slavio Garish Black
Party SPP & Coalition PN/ Right Bloc Democratic Party
Leader's seat Boré Namco Emperia
Seats won 90 82 28
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 24 Decrease 10
Popular vote 3,208,843 2,948,723 1,003,761
Percentage 44.8% 41.1% 14.0%

Overview

The 2049 Dresden Federal Election was the second election conducted after the Second Constitution was adopted.

The election saw the incumbent government led by Prime Minister Marta Barrancivon and the center-left Social Progress Party and their coalition partners narrowly lose their parliamentary majority. Arni Slavio and the center-right Proud Nation topped the poll with 26% of the vote with Barrancivon's SPP close behind at 25%. However, the combined vote total of the coalition was much greater, but not a majority, at 45%. Larry Hartkeel, leader of the liberal centrist Democratic Party, offered to join the governing coalition to provide Barrancivon with a second term as Prime Minister.

Economic growth and the role of the Federal Government compared to the role of the states was a key component in the campaign. The confederate system of government just implement was being criticized by the government for impeding their ability to put forth progressive policies because they would not be consented to by mostly right-wing state governments.

The Campaign

Rules and Parties

The Federal Election Governing Body (FEGB) set guidelines for parties wishing to compete in the Parliamentary elections on when they could campaign, how they campaign, and how much air time they are allotted. Any party polling above 12% before the campaign were allowed to have their Party Convention aired on live network television. There were also two debates: one between party leaders of all parties competing, and one between party leaders of parties polling above 12%.

The campaign officially began on April 4, 2049. Prior to this, parties were not allowed to campaign except for in newspapers and magazines. Public opinion polling became much more strictly controlled, prohibiting more than one poll per month before the campaign season and then only one poll every two days until the last week of the election. There were no restrictions on polling in the final days of the campaign and no restrictions on exit polls.

Several parties operated a semi-autonomous campaign, but deferred to Prime Minister Barrancivon as they were running as the current governing coalition. These parties were:

  • Social Progress Party (center-left and senior coalition member)
  • Green Party (left-wing and environmentalist)
  • Liberal Party of the Left (left-of-center progressive liberal)
  • United Front of Socialists (far-left)

Other parties that operated completely autonomous campaigns were:

  • Proud Nation* (center-right to right-wing)
  • Democratic Party (liberal centrist)
  • Liberty Union* (right-wing libertarian)
  • Heritage Union* (far-right Australian nationalist)

*It is important to note that PN, LU, and HU were viewed likely to form a coalition to govern if at all possible, and for polling and discussion purposes were considered the Right Bloc.

The Horserace

Marta Barrancivon's popularity was mediocre at best, but to everyone's amazement, it was announced in the fall that the coalition would push forward with more progressive policies and focus particularly on taxing and spending. Understanding that his party could capitalize on the malaise of the Barrancivon I Government, Garish Black stood down as leader of Proud Nation, setting up a stiff competition for leader at the convention. The Democrats hoped that any support lost by the coalition would bleed to them.

At the conventions, Barrancivon was re-elected SPP leader unanimously, Arni Slavio of Kent was elected leader of Proud Nation by a 75%-25% margin, and Democratic Party leader Larry Hartkeel nearly lost to Tim Yarmouth in a vote of 48%-47%-5%. The Democratic Convention did the most damage of any of the parties, and Proud Nation's Convention provided a decent bump in the PN and right bloc standing in the polls.

During the debates, Barrancivon stole the show, displaying her excellent debating skills. Slavio got credit for doing well in the second debate, and Hartkeel was criticized for back-to-back poor performances leading to a huge slump of Dem support in the polls. The governing coalition saw a bounce in the polls leading up to the election which resulted in a narrow victory after a coalition deal with Larry Hartkeel and the Dems.

Opinion Polls

Opinion polls for the Dresden Federal Election, 2049
Date(s)
administered
Coalition PN/

Right Bloc

Dems
ACTUAL RESULT 45% 41% 14%
EXIT POLL 44% 44% 12%
May 3, 2049 45% 44% 11%
May 1, 2049 47% 43% 10%
April 28, 2049 44% 47% 9%
April 26, 2049 48% 45% 7%
April 24, 2049 45% 47% 8%
April 22, 2049 42% 48% 10%
April 20, 2049 36% 51% 13%
April 18, 2049 37% 49% 14%
April 16, 2049 38% 45% 17%
April 14, 2049 39% 41% 20%
April 12, 2049 39% 38% 23%
April 10, 2049 44% 32% 24%
April 8, 2049 41% 35% 24%
April 4, 2049 38% 37% 25%
April 2, 2049 39% 40% 21%
March 31, 2049 40% 46% 14%
March 1, 2049 47% 42% 11%
February 16, 2049 48% 46% 6%
January 14, 2049 50% 39% 11%

Results

2049 Dresden Federal Election
Party Leader Leader's Seat Seats Won Seats +/- Percent Vote Percent +/-
Proud Nation Arni Slavio Verano, Kent 52 Increase 16 26.2% 1,876,722 Increase 8.2%
Social Progress Party Marta Barrancivon Monroeville, Boré 50 Decrease 6 24.5% 1,756,836 Decrease 3.5%
Democratic Party Larry Hartkeel Kari, Emperia 28 Decrease 10 14.0% 1,003,761 Decrease 5.0%
Green Party Marlon Tule Jasiento, Tancrato 25 Increase 1 12.6% 901,542 Increase 0.6%
Liberty Union Sharon Mace Talmadge, Neloa 16 Increase 6 7.9% 568,665 Increase 2.9%
Heritage Union Saul Backman Plaquamine, Kent 14 Increase 2 7.0% 503,336 Increase 1.0%
Liberal Party of the Left Tate Kettering Venito Beach, Atlanta 8 Decrease 8 4.2% 302,811 Decrease 3.8%
United Front of Socialists Tate Kettering Emilio, Tancrato 7 Decrease 1 3.5% 247,654 Decrease 0.5%
Total 200 7,161,377

A Hung Parliament and the Barrancivon II Government

Arni Slavio and Proud Nation technically topped to poll with 26% of the vote and 52 seats. However, the combined total of their prospective coalition partners was 41% of the vote and 82 seats, less than Barrancivon's SPP and governing coalition that recieved 45% of the vote and 90 seats. On Election Night, Prime Minister Barrancivon claimed victory, despite having a voting bloc of 101 to survive a confidence vote.

Party leaders have exactly two weeks from election day to form a government or face another election. Also, any member can bring up a confidence vote at any time, in which a government that fails a confidence vote is immediately dissolved and a general election must be scheduled within 6 weeks.

Shortly after it was clear that the Coalition had come in first place, Larry Hartkeel announced that his Democratic Party, which lost 10 seats in the election, would be happy to either join the Coalition or support the coalition on certain initiatives and provide confidence votes for a minority government. Three days later, after several meetings, the Democratic Party officially joined the Coalition to provide Barrancivon a second term as Prime Minister. The United Front of Socialists were excluded from the Coalition as their 7 seats were not needed and the Dems refused to be in any alliance with the UFS.

Barrancivon II Government Coalition Partners

  • Social Progress Party, 50 seats, Marta Barrancivon- Prime Minister
  • Democratic Party, 28 seats, Larry Hartkeel- Deputy Prime Minister
  • Green Party, 25 seats, Marlon Tule- Secretary of State
  • Liberal Party of the Left, 8 seats, Tate Kettering- Chancellor of the Purse

The Barrancivon II Government was formed with 111 Members of Parliament, a majority of 10.

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