Dresden Federal Election, 2046

Overview[]

The 2046 Dresden Federal Election was the first election conducted after the previous House of Representatives and Prime Executive decided to scrap the first form of government for Dresden. The House of Representatives was renamed to the Parliament of the United Confederacy of Dresden.

The election was won by the center-left Social Progress Party with leader Marta Barrancivon of Boré becoming Prime Minister. SPP only won 28% of the vote and 56 seats, but were able to govern through a coalition government deal with the Green Party, the Liberal Party, and the United Front of Socialists.

The former presidential system was ended in favor of a parliament along with a massive amount of power devolved to each of the states. This was the first election in which Boré was recognized as a member state of the Dresden Union and no longer a French protectorate.

Prior to this campaign, only two coalition-parties were allowed to compete in elections. This election allowed many different parties to compete and MP's were elected by proportional representation using the D'Hondt method. There were no constitutional guidelines to the geographic distribution from where candidates could stand, but each party followed hypothetical constituency boundaries to ensure their candidates and list order would provide a geographically proportionate result.

The Campaign[]

The Federal Election Governing Body (FEGB) set guidelines for parties wishing to compete in the Parliamentary elections on when they could campaign, how they campaign, and how much air time they are allotted. Any party polling above 12% before the campaign were allowed to have their Party Convention aired on live network television. There were also two debates: one between party leaders of all parties competing, and one between party leaders of parties polling above 12%.

The parties qualifying to form party lists to contest the elections were:

Social Progress Party (SPP), a center-left social democratic party
Democratic Party (Dems), a centrist liberal party
Proud Nation (PN), a center-right to right-wing conservative party
Green Party (Greens), a left-wing socialist and environmentalist party
Liberal Party of the Left (Libs), a progressive liberal party
Heritage Union (HU), a far-right party of Australian nationalists
Liberty Union (LU), a right-wing libertarian party
United Front of Socialists (UFS), a far-left socialist party

At the beginning of the campaign, Proud Nation was leading the polls by double digits, and only the PN, Democrats, and SPP were cracking the 12% threshold. After the Social Progress Party's convention and the selection of Marta Barrancivon as party leader, they began to lead the polls. She performed well during the first debate, clearly contrasting herself from PN leader Garish Black, who came off as unintelligent.

The 12% threshold for the second debate was met by the SPP, PN, Dems, and the Greens. Ms. Barrancivon was viewed as the winner of that debate with Dem leader Larry Hartkeel raising his party's profile. Support for the PN cratered as the SPP began taking a steady lead, sometimes surpassing 40% in polls. In the end, SPP won the election with 28% of the vote with Dems coming in second with 19% and PN third at 18%. Since the SPP did not win a majority, they formed a government through a coalition deal with other left-of-center parties.

Opinion Polls[]

Opinion polls for the Dresden Federal Election, 2046
Date(s) administered	SPP	Dems	PN	Greens	Others
ACTUAL RESULT	28%	19%	18%	12%	23%
EXIT POLL	32%	17%	19%	14%	18%
May 3, 2046	28%	15%	22%	15%	20%
May 1, 2046	31%	13%	23%	11%	22%
April 28, 2046	33%	10%	27%	14%	16%
April 26, 2046	40%	14%	24%	9%	13%
April 24, 2046	41%	12%	26%	10%	11%
April 22, 2046	41%	13%	25%	12%	9%
April 20, 2046	38%	14%	24%	13%	11%
April 18, 2046	34%	12%	29%	12%	13%
April 16, 2046	31%	13%	30%	11%	15%
April 14, 2046	30%	11%	32%	10%	17%
April 12, 2046	28%	10%	35%	9%	18%
April 10, 2046	27%	8%	37%	11%	17%
April 8, 2046	23%	6%	40%	8%	23%
April 4, 2046	25%	9%	43%	7%	16%
April 2, 2046	22%	8%	44%	9%	17%
March 31, 2046	19%	10%	48%	6%	17%
March 1, 2046	20%	9%	51%	4%	16%
February 16, 2046	41%	3%	54%	3%	N/A
January 14, 2046	42%	N/A	58%	N/A	N/A

Results[]

2046 Dresden Federal Election
Party	Leader	Leader's Seat	Seats Won	Seats +/-	Percent	Vote	Percent +/-
Social Progress Party	Marta Barrancivon	Monroeville, Boré	56	56	28.0%	1,925,527	28.0%
Democratic Party	Larry Hartkeel	Kari, Emperia	38	38	19.0%	1,306,608	19.0%
Proud Nation	Garish Black	Moore, Namco	36	36	18.0%	1,237,839	18.0%
Green Party	Marlon Tule	Jasiento, Tancrato	24	24	12.0%	825,226	12.0%
Liberal Party of the Left	Tate Kettering	Venito Beach, Atlanta	16	16	8.0%	550,151	8.0%
Heritage Union	Saul Backman	Plaquamine, Kent	12	12	6.0%	412,613	6.0%
Liberty Union	Rodney Willard	Redcar, Neola	10	10	5.0%	343,844	5.0%
United Front of Socialists	Tate Kettering	Emilio, Tancrato	8	8	4.0%	550,151	4.0%
Total							6,876,882

A Hung Parliament and the Barrancivon I Government[]

Despite topping the poll, Marta Barrancivon and SPP did not win 50% of the vote and therefore 50% of the seats. She was forced to rely on smaller parties to support her as a minority government or form a formal coalition government with other parties to build majority government.

Party leaders have exactly two weeks from election day to form a government or face another election. Also, any member can bring up a confidence vote at any time, in which a government that fails a confidence vote is immediately dissolved and a general election must be scheduled within two months.

Marta Barrancivon wanted to avoid the uncertainty of not surviving a confidence vote so she formed a deal with three other left-of-center parties in order to create a majority voting bloc and gave each of their party leaders a significant ministerial cabinet position in the government.

Social Progress Party, 56 seats, Marta Barrancivon- Prime Minister
Green Party, 24 seats, Marlon Tule- Deputy Prime Minister
Liberal Party of the Left, 16 seats, Tate Kettering- Chancellor of the Purse
United Front of Socialists, 8 seats, Susan Gleeb- Minister of Equality

The Barrancivon I Government was formed with 104 Members of Parliament, a majority of 3. |}