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Dresden Federal Election, 2046

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Dresden Federal Election, 2046
DresdenFlag

2045May 4, 2049 2049

200 Members of the Dresden Parliament
Leader Marta Barrancivon Larry Hartkeel Garish Black
Party Social Progress Party Proud Nation Democratic Party
Leader's seat Boré Emperia Namco
Seats won 56 38 36
Seat change - - -
Popular vote 1,925,527 1,306,608 1,237,839
Percentage 28.0% 19.0% 18.0%

Overview

The 2046 Dresden Federal Election was the first election conducted after the previous House of Representatives and Prime Executive decided to scrap the first form of government for Dresden. The House of Representatives was renamed to the Parliament of the United Confederacy of Dresden.

The election was won by the center-left Social Progress Party with leader Marta Barrancivon of Boré becoming Prime Minister. SPP only won 28% of the vote and 56 seats, but were able to govern through a coalition government deal with the Green Party, the Liberal Party, and the United Front of Socialists.

The former presidential system was ended in favor of a parliament along with a massive amount of power devolved to each of the states. This was the first election in which Boré was recognized as a member state of the Dresden Union and no longer a French protectorate.

Prior to this campaign, only two coalition-parties were allowed to compete in elections. This election allowed many different parties to compete and MP's were elected by proportional representation using the D'Hondt method. There were no constitutional guidelines to the geographic distribution from where candidates could stand, but each party followed hypothetical constituency boundaries to ensure their candidates and list order would provide a geographically proportionate result.

The Campaign

The Federal Election Governing Body (FEGB) set guidelines for parties wishing to compete in the Parliamentary elections on when they could campaign, how they campaign, and how much air time they are allotted. Any party polling above 12% before the campaign were allowed to have their Party Convention aired on live network television. There were also two debates: one between party leaders of all parties competing, and one between party leaders of parties polling above 12%.

The parties qualifying to form party lists to contest the elections were:

  • Social Progress Party (SPP), a center-left social democratic party
  • Democratic Party (Dems), a centrist liberal party
  • Proud Nation (PN), a center-right to right-wing conservative party
  • Green Party (Greens), a left-wing socialist and environmentalist party
  • Liberal Party of the Left (Libs), a progressive liberal party
  • Heritage Union (HU), a far-right party of Australian nationalists
  • Liberty Union (LU), a right-wing libertarian party
  • United Front of Socialists (UFS), a far-left socialist party

At the beginning of the campaign, Proud Nation was leading the polls by double digits, and only the PN, Democrats, and SPP were cracking the 12% threshold. After the Social Progress Party's convention and the selection of Marta Barrancivon as party leader, they began to lead the polls. She performed well during the first debate, clearly contrasting herself from PN leader Garish Black, who came off as unintelligent.

The 12% threshold for the second debate was met by the SPP, PN, Dems, and the Greens. Ms. Barrancivon was viewed as the winner of that debate with Dem leader Larry Hartkeel raising his party's profile. Support for the PN cratered as the SPP began taking a steady lead, sometimes surpassing 40% in polls. In the end, SPP won the election with 28% of the vote with Dems coming in second with 19% and PN third at 18%. Since the SPP did not win a majority, they formed a government through a coalition deal with other left-of-center parties.

Opinion Polls

Opinion polls for the Dresden Federal Election, 2046
Date(s)
administered
SPP Dems PN Greens Others
ACTUAL RESULT 28% 19% 18% 12% 23%
EXIT POLL 32% 17% 19% 14% 18%
May 3, 2046 28% 15% 22% 15% 20%
May 1, 2046 31% 13% 23% 11% 22%
April 28, 2046 33% 10% 27% 14% 16%
April 26, 2046 40% 14% 24% 9% 13%
April 24, 2046 41% 12% 26% 10% 11%
April 22, 2046 41% 13% 25% 12% 9%
April 20, 2046 38% 14% 24% 13% 11%
April 18, 2046 34% 12% 29% 12% 13%
April 16, 2046 31% 13% 30% 11% 15%
April 14, 2046 30% 11% 32% 10% 17%
April 12, 2046 28% 10% 35% 9% 18%
April 10, 2046 27% 8% 37% 11% 17%
April 8, 2046 23% 6% 40% 8% 23%
April 4, 2046 25% 9% 43% 7% 16%
April 2, 2046 22% 8% 44% 9% 17%
March 31, 2046 19% 10% 48% 6% 17%
March 1, 2046 20% 9% 51% 4% 16%
February 16, 2046 41% 3% 54% 3% N/A
January 14, 2046 42% N/A 58% N/A N/A

Results

2046 Dresden Federal Election
Party Leader Leader's Seat Seats Won Seats +/- Percent Vote Percent +/-
Social Progress Party Marta Barrancivon Monroeville, Boré 56 Increase 56 28.0% 1,925,527 Increase 28.0%
Democratic Party Larry Hartkeel Kari, Emperia 38 Increase 38 19.0% 1,306,608 Increase 19.0%
Proud Nation Garish Black Moore, Namco 36 Increase 36 18.0% 1,237,839 Increase 18.0%
Green Party Marlon Tule Jasiento, Tancrato 24 Increase 24 12.0% 825,226 Increase 12.0%
Liberal Party of the Left Tate Kettering Venito Beach, Atlanta 16 Increase 16 8.0% 550,151 Increase 8.0%
Heritage Union Saul Backman Plaquamine, Kent 12 Increase 12 6.0% 412,613 Increase 6.0%
Liberty Union Rodney Willard Redcar, Neola 10 Increase 10 5.0% 343,844 Increase 5.0%
United Front of Socialists Tate Kettering Emilio, Tancrato 8 Increase 8 4.0% 550,151 Increase 4.0%
Total 6,876,882

A Hung Parliament and the Barrancivon I Government

Despite topping the poll, Marta Barrancivon and SPP did not win 50% of the vote and therefore 50% of the seats. She was forced to rely on smaller parties to support her as a minority government or form a formal coalition government with other parties to build majority government.

Party leaders have exactly two weeks from election day to form a government or face another election. Also, any member can bring up a confidence vote at any time, in which a government that fails a confidence vote is immediately dissolved and a general election must be scheduled within two months.

Marta Barrancivon wanted to avoid the uncertainty of not surviving a confidence vote so she formed a deal with three other left-of-center parties in order to create a majority voting bloc and gave each of their party leaders a significant ministerial cabinet position in the government.

  • Social Progress Party, 56 seats, Marta Barrancivon- Prime Minister
  • Green Party, 24 seats, Marlon Tule- Deputy Prime Minister
  • Liberal Party of the Left, 16 seats, Tate Kettering- Chancellor of the Purse
  • United Front of Socialists, 8 seats, Susan Gleeb- Minister of Equality

The Barrancivon I Government was formed with 104 Members of Parliament, a majority of 3. |}

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