Amara's law
From Future
Amara's law is a maxim stating:
- We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
It was put forth by wikipedia:Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future. It is sometimes called Saffo's law or Clarke's law.
It echoes a quote by wikipedia:Joseph Licklider that says:
- A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years,
which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, Libraries of the Future," MIT Press, 1965.
Similar bias is also caused by the hype cycle.
Source: wikipedia:Amara's law
